How do you embrace uncertainty? Be your own defence lawyer, devise alternatives, have a “can-do” attitude
As one of our incubators has it, we can only cope with our challenging futures if we also try to develop a “future being”.. One component of that character will be the ability to embrace - and not be freaked out by - uncertainty.
This Psyche essay from Arie Kruglanski, based on her book, gives a great overview and some pertinent life hacks to improve your capacity for the unexpected.
Extract below:
Uncertainty is a universal human predicament: ‘the future’s not ours to see’, as a song once put it. While people often feel pretty certain about many things – including the sense that the rhythms of daily life will continue on as usual – each of us inevitably confronts situations in which the lack of certainty is obvious, and faces the displeasure of not knowing what will happen next.
When that occurs for you, will you fear the uncertainty, and attempt to escape it or avoid thinking about it? Or can you instead try to embrace the opportunities that an uncertain situation might offer? In this Guide, I will recommend some ways to better manage the unease that often comes with uncertain situations, especially ones with potentially negative outcomes.
These situations are commonplace. You may feel troubled, for example, when your email or phone call goes unanswered, might fear being ‘ghosted’ or rejected by a potential romantic partner or employer. Or you might dread the uncertainty that accompanies a wait for the outcome of a college entrance exam, a job interview or a medical test.
Actually, almost any new task or project you undertake is likely to involve uncertainty. You might have doubts about whether you’ve got what it takes to succeed. You may be prone to overemphasise the possible negative outcomes, and see a situation as a burden or a threat that you would rather avoid or escape.
At certain times, events that unfold on a wider scale plunge many people into uncertain situations at once – as during the COVID-19pandemic, which brought with it a wave of anxiety and fear.
Scientific psychology has repeatedly highlighted the human aversion to not knowing. In 1949, the psychologist Else Frenkel-Brunswik introduced the concept of intolerance of ambiguity. This century, the psychologist Geert Hofstede popularised the idea of uncertainty avoidance. Since then, several theories have described how high uncertainty can be threatening, motivating people to defend against it.
My own work on the need for ‘cognitive closure’ – that is, the urge people have to feel that they’ve made a confident judgment about something – indicates that people attempt to escape uncertainty through responses such as jumping to conclusions and engaging in black-and-white thinking.
Those tendencies can have adverse social and political consequences: for example, this work suggests that ‘freezing’ on the wrong conceptions by Israeli military intelligence, under a high need for closure, played a role in the surprise attack on Israel in 1973 (and, perhaps, the recent attack by Hamas).
High need for closure also encourages people to support autocratic regimes and forms of governance that suppress dissent and are intolerant of diversity. In everyday situations, the need for cognitive closure might make one jump to a premature conclusion, interpret not hearing back from someone as a slight or a rejection, or judge a person on the basis of their gender, race or religion rather than getting to know them better.
These are but a few examples of a general trend in psychological theory and research that portrays uncertainty as threatening, and documents the tendency to escape it and flee to certainty, the sooner the better.
Uncertainty does not have to be so daunting
Some uncertain situations, such as the recent pandemic, are especially dire and come with a variety of alarming possibilities. But many uncertain situations are not so threatening, and in some cases – such as when you travel to an unfamiliar place or meet a new person – the potential outcomes are actually quite positive, even if there are also some undesirable ones (eg, getting lost, being rejected).
Of course, not everyone thinks about these positive and negative possibilities in the same way. Some people foreground their worst fears when they think about an uncertain situation, and so they might worry excessively about it or attempt to avoid it altogether. Someone who instead focuses on their hopes or aspirations in the face of uncertainty may embrace the situation more confidently.
What leads people toward these different tendencies? Research by my colleagues and me suggests that one factor is what we call the ‘long-term history of outcomes’. It seems that people who have had bad past experiences – such as being abused in childhood, or feeling abandoned or not cared for – tend to be more pessimistic and respond more negatively to uncertain situations.
By contrast, people who remember having a positive childhood tend to be more optimistic, and respond more positively to uncertain situations. The research suggests that a person’s long-term history can be temporarily counterbalanced by more recent events (eg, positive events might lead to a boost in optimism), but that one usually returns to the baseline level of optimism or pessimism.
This baseline does not have to be permanent, however. Research from positive psychology has helped to demonstrate that the way a person thinks about failures and successes can promote the learning of optimism and reduce the fear of negative outcomes.
Taking a stance of mindful acceptance toward uncertain situations can be valuable, too, by helping a person to detach from possible outcomes, good or bad. There are varied approaches you can use to embrace – rather than try to escape or simply suffer through – uncertain situations, and to make the most of the opportunities they might offer.
Key insights
Uncertain situations are inevitable. From waiting for a call back to anticipating important test results, everyone faces situations with uncertain outcomes. Not knowing what will happen can be challenging.
Uncertainty doesn’t have to be so daunting. Many people worry intensely about or try to escape uncertain situations. But developing a more optimistic outlook and learning to tolerate uncertainty can make these situations easier to face.
Be your own defence attorney. Reflecting on past failures or disappointments, identify reasons for each outcome that were unique to that situation – rather than reflecting a permanent problem.
Develop a ‘can do’ attitude. Think of situations with uncertain outcomes as challenges to be met – and list specific ways to overcome the difficulties they pose.
Devise alternatives. Reduce your emotional dependence on the outcomes of uncertain situations by listing alternative courses of action that you can take if the worst were to happen.
Practise mindfulness. Take some time to simply observe the thoughts and feelings that an uncertain situation brings up. Cultivate a more relaxed state of mind with regular mindfulness meditation.