Seize the RAFT for 2035, says David Wood: a Roadmap towards Abundance, enabling Flourishing, via Transcendence
We always welcome our great friend, London Futurists’ chair David Wood, and his integrated, detailed and humane (indeed, trans-humane!) visions of the future. What follows is a major restatement of his various positions (which we’ve promoted here on A/UK), leading up to a new book later this year.
It’s called RAFT 2035— and it’s a powerful acronym. In David’s words, “the turbulent times ahead require”:
A Roadmap (‘R’) – not just a lofty aspiration, but specific steps and interim targets
towards Abundance (‘A’) for all – beyond a world of scarcity and conflict
enabling Flourishing (‘F’) as never before – with life containing not just possessions, but enriched experiences, creativity, and meaning
via Transcendence (‘T’) – since we won’t be able to make progress by staying as we are.
We publish the opening introduction to RAFT 2035 - but in his usual collaborative way, David has set the book up as a Google Docs, inviting comments and suggestions. As much as we’re anxious about our coming climate disruption at A/UK we are also hopeful that human innovation (and deliberation) can increase our capacity to respond, and also to find sources of flourishing. In that perspective, David is a bountiful resource.
WELCOME TO THE RAFT!
Before the welcome, a word of warning. Buckle up. Prepare for wave after wave of turbulence.
The fifteen years from 2020 to 2035 could be the most turbulent of human history. Revolutions are gathering pace in four overlapping fields of technology: nanotech, biotech, infotech, and cognotech, or NBIC for short. In combination, these NBIC revolutions offer enormous new possibilities. These possibilities include enormous opportunities alongside enormous risks:
Nanotech can provide resilient new materials, new processes for manufacturing and recycling, new ways to capture and distribute energy, new types of computing hardware, and pervasive new surveillance networks of all-seeing sensors.
Infotech can augment human intelligence and creativity with new generations of artificial intelligence, leaping over human capabilities in increasing numbers of domains of thought, and displacing greater numbers of human employees from tasks which used to occupy large parts of their paid employment.
Biotech enables the modification not only of nature, but of human nature: it will allow us not only to create new types of lifeform – synthetic organisms that can outperform those found in nature – but also to edit the human metabolism more radically than is possible via existing tools such as vaccinations, antibiotics, and occasional organ transplants.
Cognotech allows similar modifications for the human mind, brain, and spirit, enabling in just a few short weeks the kind of changes in mindset and inner character which previously might have required many years of disciplined study of yoga, meditation, and/or therapy; it also enables alarming new types of mind control and ego manipulation.
Rapid technological change tends to provoke a turbulent social reaction. Old certainties fade. New winners arrive on the scene, flaunting their power, and upturning previous networks of relationships.
Within the general public, a sense of alienation and disruption mingles with a sense of profound possibility. Fear and hope jostle each other. Whilst some social metrics indicate major progress, others indicate major setbacks.
The claim “You’ve never had it so good” coexists with the counterclaim “It’s going to be worse than ever”. To add to the bewilderment, there seems to be lots of evidence confirming both views.
The greater the pace of change, the more intense the dislocation. Due to the increased scale, speed, and global nature of the ongoing NBIC revolutions, the disruptions that followed in the wake of previous industrial revolutions – traumatic though they were – are likely to be dwarfed in comparison to what lies ahead.
Taming the turbulence
The forthcoming floods of technological and social change could turn our world upside down, more quickly and more brutally than we expected. When turbulent waters are bearing down fast, having a sturdy raft at hand can be the difference between life and death.
Turbulent times require a space for shelter and reflection, clear navigational vision despite the mists of uncertainty, and a powerful engine for us to pursue our own direction, rather than just being carried along by forces outside our control. I
In other words, turbulent times require a powerful “raft” – a roadmap to a future in which the extraordinary powers latent in NBIC technologies are used to raise humanity to new levels of flourishing, rather than driving us over some dreadful precipice.
The pages ahead describe such a roadmap. Welcome!
The world to come
How good could life become by 2035, if people really apply themselves to the task?
Here’s the answer from RAFT 2035:
Thanks to the thoughtful application of breakthroughs in science and technology, the future can be profoundly betterthan the present
2035 could see an abundance of all-round human flourishing, with no-one left behind.
The word “abundance” here means that there will be enough for everyone to have an excellent quality of life. No one will lack access to healthcare, accommodation, nourishment, essential material goods, information, education, social engagement, free expression, or artistic endeavour.
RAFT 2035 envisions the possibility, by 2035, of an abundance of human flourishing in each of six sectors of human life:
Individual health and wellbeing
The wellbeing of social relationships
The quality of international relationships
Sustainable relationships with the environment
Humanity’s exploration of the wider cosmos beyond the earth
The health of our political systems.
RAFT offers clear goals for what can be accomplished in each of these six sectors by 2035 – 15 goals in total, for society to keep firmly in mind between now and that date.
The 15 goals each involve taking wise advantage of the remarkable capabilities of 21st century science and technology: robotics, biotech, neurotech, nanotech, greentech, artificial intelligence, collaboration technology, and much more.
The goals also highlight how the development and adoption of science and technology can, and must, be guided by the very best of human thinking and values.
Indeed, at the same time as RAFT 2035 upholds this vision, it is also fully aware of deep problems and challenges in each of the six sectors described.
Progress will depend on a growing number of people in all areas of society:
Recognising the true scale of the opportunity ahead
Setting aside distractions
Building effective coalitions
Taking appropriate positive actions.
These actions make up RAFT 2035. There’s plenty of work to be done!
A world of difference
Here’s what’s different about RAFT compared to most other political visions.
Most other political visions assume that only modest changes in the human condition will take place over the next few decades. In contrast, RAFT takes seriously the potential for large changes in the human condition – and sees these changes not only as desirable but essential.
Most other political visions are preoccupied by short term incremental issues. In contrast, RAFT highlights major disruptive opportunities and risks ahead.
Finally, most other political visions seek for society to “go back” to elements of a previous era, which is thought to be simpler, or purer, or in some other way preferable to the apparent messiness of today’s world. In contrast, RAFT offers a bold vision of creating a new, much better society – a society that builds on the existing strengths of human knowledge, skills, and relationships, whilst leaving behind those aspects of the human condition which unnecessarily limit human flourishing.
It’s an ambitious vision. But as the following chapters explain, there are many solutions and tools at hand, ready to energise and empower a growing coalition of activists, engineers, social entrepreneurs, researchers, creatives, humanitarians, and more.
These solutions can help us all to transcend our present-day preoccupations, our unnecessary divisions, our individual agendas, and our inherited human limitations.
Going forwards, these solutions mean that, with wise choices, constraints which have long overshadowed human existence can soon be lifted:
Instead of physical decay and growing age-related infirmity, an abundance of health and longevity awaits us.
Instead of collective foolishness and blinkered failures of reasoning, an abundance of intelligence and wisdom is within our reach.
Instead of morbid depression and emotional alienation – instead of envy and egotism – we can achieve an abundance of mental and spiritual wellbeing.
Instead of a society laden with deception, abuses of power, and divisive factionalism, we can embrace an abundance of democracy – a flourishing of transparency, access, mutual support, collective insight, and opportunity for all, with no one left behind.
More here (with outlines of the book chapters at the bottom of this webpage).